Oil majors are betting big on liquified natural gas (LNG), throwing down the gauntlet to predictions of peak gas by the end of the decade. Britain’s Shell , a leading player in the global LNG market, has identified the super-cooled commodity as a primary focus amid the energy transition. France’s TotalEnergies said it expects LNG volumes managed by the company to grow by 50% between 2023 and 2030, while BP , which recently doubled down on fossil fuels as part of a green strategy U-turn , has significant LNG investments. Stateside, Exxon Mobil is seeking to double its LNG portfolio by 2030, Chevron has been expanding existing LNG projects and developing new facilities, while Baker Hughes recently said it would buy Chart Industries for $13.6 billion as part of a move to increase its LNG exposure. Big Oil’s LNG push comes as the industry seeks to capitalize on growing global demand and as major players look to diversify their portfolios. Energy analysts, however, have raised some concerns. The bottom line is it is a very risky bet — and a bet against the energy transition. Electricity and data analyst at Ember Euan Graham LNG is derived from natural gas, a fossil fuel, although it is often presented as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels, like coal and oil. Critics argue that LNG can’t be considered a viable ” bridge fuel ” due to concerns over its environmental impact, particularly regarding methane leaks in the supply chain. Speaking to CNBC during earnings season, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the company will need to keep an open mind through the energy transition, noting that this shift “will not be linear.” Sawan singled out LNG as one “much sought-after energy form” that will play an integral role in the firm’s long-term strategy, alongside plans to build out some of its low carbon projects. “But to the heart of your question, where can Shell predominantly play, I’d say first and foremost it’s in LNG,” Sawan told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box Europe ” on July 31. “Here is a versatile fuel that is able today to respond to droughts a few years ago in Brazil, respond to the needs of Europe after the Russia invasion of Ukraine, respond to the needs of Asia when you have a hot summer or a very cold winter — and one that is going to grow by 60% between now and 2040.” Shell’s bullish LNG outlook largely stems from projected economic growth in Asia, which represents the biggest market for LNG, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport and the impact of an artificial intelligence boom . The LNG demand forecast, however, jars with expectations from the International Energy Agency. ‘Something has to give’ The world’s leading global energy watchdog said recently that global demand is expected to pick up next year, following a slowdown in 2025, as more supply comes to market. Yet the IEA still expects gas demand to plateau, or peak, by the end of the decade. As clean energy sources rapidly gain prominence , the Paris-based agency has previously warned that “something has to give” in the LNG market. The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook 2024 that amid an increase of nearly 50% in global export capacity, led by the U.S. and Qatar, the prices that many suppliers will need to recover their investments may not encourage low-income economies to switch to natural gas at scale. The IEA has upwardly revised its forecast for LNG, saying that it expects demand to grow at 2.5% per year through to 2035 under a scenario of announced energy and climate policies. That’s faster than the overall rise in gas demand but it says an LNG supply glut could be exacerbated by an accelerated energy transition. “The bottom line is it is a very risky bet — and a bet against the energy transition,” Euan Graham, electricity and data analyst at energy think tank Ember, told CNBC by telephone. The rapid rise of solar power , in particular, appears to be undercutting global LNG demand, Graham said, noting that the scale of renewables growth has “completely changed the game.” “Geopolitical tensions have also laid bare the risks of relying on fossil fuels, with some countries in Asia uniquely exposed,” Graham said. For several Asian countries, elevated geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about the potential for oil and gas supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. Japan, South Korea, China and India are all known to be vulnerable to potential LNG supply shocks from the waterway. Capital discipline “Big Oil is trying to increase their exposure to LNG, so to talk about an LNG push is correct. We need, however, to diversity slightly among the oil majors,” Maurizio Carulli, energy and materials analyst at wealth manager Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC by telephone. For Shell, Carulli said the focus on LNG represents a “natural continuation” of a business it effectively created from scratch several decades ago, thus providing the London-listed firm with a “competitive advantage” over its industry peers. TotalEnergies is another major player in this space, Carulli said, while the likes of Exxon Mobil and Chevron in the U.S. also have significant LNG market share — albeit below that of their European peers. Read more Why Europe is pivoting back to nuclear — one of its most divisive energy sources Like defense, Goldman says ESG investors should bring oil and gas stocks in from the cold Mining giant Fortescue says Big Oil is getting it wrong: ‘Your customers want green energy’ Given LNG projects can run for 30 or 40 years, Carulli said energy majors need to make sure that any bets on facilities coming online today will still be profitable even if demand growth slows from around 2040. “This is where oil companies need to be very careful,” Carulli said. He added, however, that the process of capital budgeting among energy supermajors for large LNG operations “is very disciplined indeed. And therefore they make sure that these projects are profitable and competitive with respect to other fuels, also in the event that demand for LNG after 2040 may decline.”
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